Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.206114 15.093689 17.141384 19.525995 22.224888 25.182962 28.669169
2024-10-06 10.420774 12.948117 15.910085 19.630574 24.171832 29.527410 36.315394
2024-10-13 9.234310 12.097907 15.621740 20.263442 26.202654 33.532383 43.249055
2024-10-20 7.987361 10.970382 14.803946 20.070800 27.096008 36.118762 48.558812
2024-10-27 6.704744 9.602757 13.472819 18.990921 26.624952 36.777739 51.263390
2024-11-03 6.176825 9.180098 13.328691 19.440009 28.169281 40.137404 57.729345
2024-11-10 5.730563 8.811795 13.202330 19.866102 29.666237 43.479873 64.341021
2024-11-17 5.172723 8.216669 12.684280 19.660142 30.206678 45.466400 69.106138
2024-11-24 4.647683 7.614595 12.093275 19.277034 30.425318 46.958501 73.192441
2024-12-01 4.288632 7.232742 11.795252 19.299248 31.230772 49.334938 78.706125
2024-12-08 4.037977 6.998169 11.700216 19.617656 32.495832 52.458032 85.519917
2024-12-15 3.772294 6.712660 11.496050 19.735324 33.433449 55.106758 91.721463
2024-12-22 3.474171 6.352709 11.151943 19.613377 33.999713 57.244289 97.316039
2024-12-29 3.261633 6.121701 11.003539 19.804290 35.090565 60.286648 104.564854
2025-01-05 3.140925 6.040856 11.100656 20.413530 36.914099 64.620114 114.184010
2025-01-12 2.903915 5.726157 10.762022 20.228900 37.344718 66.628927 119.969699
2025-01-19 2.556671 5.173853 9.953653 19.137996 36.093257 65.670216 120.553894
2025-01-26 2.458779 5.089283 9.991431 19.591369 37.636952 69.647103 130.004826
2025-02-02 2.364398 5.002801 10.017341 20.020299 39.156039 73.654763 139.720647
2025-02-09 2.197977 4.757385 9.721305 19.812919 39.468673 75.498226 145.597837
2025-02-16 2.025105 4.483439 9.348384 19.426939 39.410533 76.648071 150.241812
2025-02-23 1.911905 4.324164 9.189511 19.449328 40.136191 79.283241 157.794719
2025-03-02 1.838225 4.242726 9.180668 19.770092 41.462753 83.115305 167.816143